Potential cost reduction of lithium battery packs to 2025

Potential cost reduction of lithium battery packs to 2025

27.07.2012 Institute for Rare earth and metals – The consulting firm McKinsey & Company has released a new analysis, indicating, that the cost of lithium battery packs for electric vehicles of the current 500-600 USD per kilowatt hour 200 USD per kilowatt-hour within the next 8 Years could fall. To 2025, the report, is a further price reduction on 160 USD per kilowatt-hour are possible. The study implies relatively competitive total cost of ownership, auch total-cost-ownership (TCO) called, for electric vehicles in the United States. On this basis it is assumed, that the prices at about. 3,50 USD per gallon are.

The study is based on a bottom-up method, on the cost analysis for the price of lithium battery packs in 40 basic components splits. The analysis refers to research in materials technology and manufacturing with a, and indirect costs and margins for different segments of the value chain.

Following the executive summary suggests three factors point to a gradual decline in the price of lithium battery packs.

The scale effect: The production scale and improving productivity represent approximately. 1/3 of the potential price reductions to 2025.

Cheaper components: A reduction in the prices of components and material prices represent approximately. ¼ of the price reductions.

Performance boom in battery technology: Potential technical improvements in cathode, Anode and the electrolyte solution could the power of the battery between 80-100% of the instantaneous power limit, in the next 13 Years, increase. These innovations represent 40-50% the total potential savings.

A question of total cost?

One of the challenges faced by owners of electronic cars, In contrast to conventional gasoline vehicles, faced look, The comparatively high cost. When buying an electric car, some factors in the total cost to be included. These consist of the purchase of the vehicle, Disposal and commissioning together.

In a report of the Green Tech Media Smart Grid will be the total cost in dollars per miles of frozen, the acquisition, and disposal- measured costs and cost of operation over the life.

The purchase price for electric vehicles are generally higher than internal combustion vehicles, because the lithium batteries additional costs of 10.000-20.0000 USD added. In Canada, the cost basis of Models inollelektronischen 2012 Nissan Leaf ab 38.395 USD up, while the price for a Chevrolet Volt 41.545 USD is. Comparatively costs of gasoline-powered Nissan Versa Hatchback under 15.000 USD and the Chevrolet Cruze 15.665 USD. The low adoption rate of electric vehicles indicates, that this high price the normal consumer does not feel as kommod.

It is important to note, that the criteria are different for the purchase of electric vehicles from country to country, and different demographics. The researchers from McKinsey have identified two distinct groups. First, the "lovers of electric cars" and secondly, the "reluctant Conventional", their willingness to pay more, to own their own electric vehicle, is very different.

Further investigation of the importance

Besides the implication FOR THE OPERATIONS. the potentially increased market penetration of electric vehicles, Lithium Investors will welcome the cost-reducing innovations for lithium batteries. This will be first implemented in sectors such as consumer electronics, because the global demand for excellent performance and cheaper batteries is high here.

"First, we expect, that the demand for energy storage in the consumer electronics business, without a radical technological discontinuity, continue to remain stable ', said John Newman, associate Partner bei McKinsey. "It is further expected, that the demand for energy storage will increase significantly in other industries, while the prices like for example. in vehicle- and falling energy supply industry. "

Direct benefits for lithium producers and exploration companies

McKinsey expects, that considerable interest will be to, to expand the lithium production. This is due to the lithium producers and exploration companies as well as by the participants of the battery value chain clearly, are actively looking for partnerships, which ensures them an adequate supply of lithium, while they are protected from price volatility.

John Newman, said, that lithium exploration companies, manufacturers and weigh ", whether and how they can enter into potential partnerships, they also seek, To produce materials, which ensures quality at a price, the consumers are willing to pay, while they also strive for a stable demand. "

"Since lithium can be produced as a byproduct during the production of other salts, it is likely, that an additional focus is, partners and also to find the markets for these products. Ultimately, there may be geographical considerations around the lithium production, when governments believe, that the production of energy storage is critical for national security. This could favor a geographically unterschiedlicheres range of lithium as the economy dictate otherwise, it could potentially.

The topic is of interest to the diverse geography, because investors with the resources recurring theme of nationalism and the risk contribution, that applies to companies operating in a variety of responsibilities, familiar.

According to Global Mining & Metals team at Ernst & Young, is the overall risk environment in the mining sector during the last year clearly deceptive become. Although it is generally known, that mining is a risky business activities of the, , the intensity of risks vary considerably. This has recently published a report published by E&Y is highlighted, where the top 10 Risks are listed with those miners in 2012 be confronted.

Those: www.institut-seltene-erden.org

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